Gonski reforms only help the rich in WA

One of the biggest issues I have with Julia Gillard right now is the lack of money being delivered in Western Australia on the Gonski reforms.

In a view that this money will help ‘those kids who need it most’ that particularly annoys me. Western Australia spends more than the national average on kids education, yet are portrayed as being a ‘stumbling block”.

It is also continuing on the theme that I identified a few years ago on this blog, the threat to federalism that the declining GST intake delivers.

Colin Barnett in the last week said that WA would be fiscally independent of Australia if the GST continues to marginalise.

The exact same argument I made two years ago, that it has to be seen in a different outlook in Canberra, that there is a ‘moral compass’ aspect to Western Australian demands, not just a greed element.

It is this moral compass that makes me uncertain of why Gillard would help only the 30% of schools in Western Australia that are in high socio-economic area’s. The other 70% significantly exceed the Gonski reform funding scheme.

So where is the reasonable Labor policy here?

Only 30% of students in Western Australia will receive the extra money in the 6 billion dollar Gonski education reforms and of that it will only go to those schools whose parents can afford to economically advantage their kids already by paying for tutors, feeding them food and not having any of the multitude of issues students have in lower socio-economic areas.

It is this which questions where is the Australian federation going?

Because Western Australia is at war with the Federal Government on a whole host of policies it is not being able to negotiate proper, liberal reforms based on this ideological battle. Instead incoherently bad policy such as the Gonski reforms are created.

We have to look at the background of Julia Gillard, migrant from Wales, grew up in South Australia, moved to Victoria for career advancement and now lives in the Lodge in Canberra.

In her view, she continues a line of Centralist Prime Ministers, seeing that centrist policies work best for the nation. To erode the power of states to ensure rigid consistency and cost efficiency.

It is this where the clash ruptures through Australian Politics and its battle over governance.

Western Australia is a stringently Federalist state.

I have worked for the state government and it’s policy needs encourages reform in Federal politics because of the stringent view that it know’s best for its citizen.

Local Content policy is an example of this. A Western Australian outrage, allowed the Federal Government to prepare efficient policy when this outrage went to a nation wide audience.

They had already had a trial in place in a state so they could use this policy nation wide. A benefit of a state in a staunch federalist mindset.

As we see one eastern states columnist after another doing a typical cliche about why Western Australia won’t sign up to Gonski, you won’t see the context behind it.

It doesn’t go to funding where it’s needed most, it dumbs down the goal posts for the WA education system and essentially it erodes the very philosophical ideals of the state’s population.

A state that believes in federalism v a nation of centrist policies will continue to be an issue under Abbott.

However Tony Abbott is very much on the Republican line and his rhetoric is all about the division between Federal and State Governance, which is very similar to American Politicians, particularly those on the Republican side.

His recent views on public transport funding being something for the states to fund, gives an indication of how Abbott may lead Australia

However, if policy under Abbott is as inept as Gonski is for Western Australia, it will just embolden the view that only Western Australia knows whats best for Western Australia.

By Chris Egan

@perthforever

Wandering an important case study for future Ausgold Mine

Wandering in the Wheatbelt has seen 19% population growth since the last census and due to the Boddington Gold Mine being within 30 mins of the town the amount of people employed in the mining industry has rocketed to 13% of the population and the 2nd biggest industry in town after it not raising a blip previously. 

This has important policy implications for the Ausgold mine in Katanning shire. It assures that market demands of choice will bring people to the towns of Dumbleyung, Nyabing, Gnowangerup, Broomehill and Woodanilling. All five towns are within 40 mins of the Gold Mine and have been battling declining populations and rainfall. 

What does the statistics tell us? Well in 2006 the population of Wandering had 355 people, by 2011 they had increased the population to 438. 5-14 year olds within the shire have increased from 50 – 64 and the median individual income has grown from $463 a week to $745. More importantly we have females moving back to the district as their are associated jobs from the increased population in Boddington that are not in the mining industry but are required to service the population. 

The increased revenue of the people of the shire has boosted discretionary spending in the town. Cafes, restaurants and takeaway outlet category has moved as the 5th most employed industry, after not even being mentioned at the previous census. 

Agriculture also becomes less important to the economic fortunes, while a bad season could severely impact the local economy in 2006 as 58% of people worked in Agriculture, by 2011 it had reduced to 35%. The unemployment rate of Wandering has dropped from 4.3% to 2.1% in that five years. So clearly Wandering is benefiting from the Gold Mine. 

Has cost of living increased substantially with a mine on its doorstep?

The median housing loan has rocketed up from $723 a month to $1923 and the makeup of the town has become much more family orientated. 83.5% of the community is made up of family households, up from 66% in 2006. We have the male to female ration move back towards 50/50 while Boddington down the road has moved to 63% male as the town entrenches itself as a mining town. Wandering maintains its Agricultural character that is proving to be very attractive to families. 

Wandering’s growth has been more sustainable, looking on http://www.realestate.com.au there are still houses below $200,000 and blocks below $100,000. With small class sizes, isolation and fresh country air the school has increasing school enrolments. Market forces are bringing people to the town, as towns to the west such as Pinjarra and Mandurah have much higher housing prices. Wandering has lower housing prices plus jobs close by. 

Other towns have changed dramatically as Boddington’s mine has become operational. North Dandalup’s unemployment rate has declined to 3.5% from 5.9%. In Dwellingup, Mining has gone from 5th largest employer within town to the first. It has grown from just 8 employees to 43 as the population has doubled in population within the last five years from 346 – 700. 

Boddington’s population has grown from 1300 – 2200 people within the shire. But unlike the Pilbara which has limited towns and extreme economic growth. Boddington has had towns within 30 mins of it to take up demand. Boddington has had a majority of the growth in mining workforce. It has grown from just 61 in 2006 to 341 in 2011. 

As the State Government looks at future planning, the Boddington Gold Mine can be used to predict what will happen in other towns. Newmont Mining predict there are around 900 people employed at the Boddington Gold Mine. 341 live in Boddington, 43 in Dwellingup and 32 in Wandering. 416 or nearly half of the total employees live within 30mins of the mine. When they build Katanning a far higher percentage will be within 30 mins of the mine. As there will be no absorption by a large centre like Mandurah which has a population of 69,000. 

But as we have seen with the Boddington Gold Mine the population of the region close to the mine has grown by over 1000 people. Towns should expect to see a cultural change as Wandering has experienced. Moving from 58% of the labor force in agriculture to 35% as people service the mine and a new industry becomes a major employer. But it does increase discretionary spending, brings more kids to sustain the school and does reverse population decline. 

Gnowangerup, Broomehill, Dumbleyung will see economic development spark re-population as workers flock to the region and have the choice of a number of towns of which to live in.  Just as the Boddington Gold Mine has spread its employment tentacles throughout the region. 

Councils across the Great Southern Region will benefit due to natural market forces of choice. The more attractive the towns are for families the greater the growth spurt they will get.

Cheap land, close access to the mine and the country environment are already providing an attraction for families working at Boddington but living in a traditionally agricultural community. 

Chris Egan

@perthforever 

Interest Rate cuts, provide significant stimulus to WA

The Interest Rate cuts have worked in some parts of the country and not others. ACT and WA who have the highest wages in the country and the lowest unemployment rates have seen significant growth in retail trade, housing construction and in Western Australia’s case the creation of nearly 20,000 jobs in the last two months as retail trades seven days a week. 

If you analyse the Labor Force Statistics from the ABS, they show as the Mining boom has cooled down, other industries are filling the gap. August saw retail grow by 1.4% in the month, or around $88 million dollars, the result was 8000 jobs, mainly female being added to the economy. While the Male employment rate roughly stayed the same. As the West pointed out in its coverage, retail spending has rebounded strongly on the West Coast. 

Here has been the catch 22 in regards to Perth, we have been stimulated by a massive mining boom that has pushed interest rates higher to prevent higher inflation within the economy. Which has impacted eastern states economies not going through the same mining boom. But as the mining boom has cooled off, the economies in the eastern states have been supressed for so long and they are in such a thrifty mode, that interest rate cuts have not worked in the states where wages have barely moved, unemployment has moved higher and the economy was already in a weakened state. 

However it has most definitely worked in Western Australia, First Homebuyers are flocking back to the market, retail spending is booming and job creation is growing faster than anywhere else in the country. If we look at the seasonally adjusted figures, the amount of new jobs created in Western Australia was only second to NSW on seasonally adjusted figures. 13,000 in NSW to 11,000 in WA. Participation rate has moved up to 69.1 in Western Australia, compared to 60.5 in Tasmania. 

So we have two Australia’s, one that is battling to respond to Interest Rate cuts and another that is. While clearly the mining boom in Western Australia is cooling, the extent of economies weakness in states such as Queensland and Tasmania (6.3% and 7.3% unemployment rates respectfully) will keep the WA economy booming in retail and construction. Employment and population growth continues to grow, which will then make it more attractive for migrants to move. 

So as interest rates continue to be cut to give a stimulus to the eastern seaboard, the retail, construction environment should see WA maintaining a sub 5% unemployment rate. Victoria’s economic growth in the 2000′s was largely credited to population growth. WA has both a population, mining stimulus and now a cash rate reduction. 

While in Queensland you lost 20,000 jobs and the amount employed is roughly the same as the GFC in 2009, unemployment rate similar to what there was during the worst of the recession in that state. Western Australia’s economic fundamentals are generally very good and enters a period of cash rate reductions at a time when the economy has not even flat lined. 

Higher wages play a part and a housing policy by the State Government when it got elected to deflate as much as it could the housing Prices. The Report of a Nation by the Local Government Association, credits the Governments infrastructure development, land creation policies to have encouraged young people from throughout the country to live in Western Australia. So demographics play a part, Western Australia is younger than the rest of the country, it has more people working, is more productive and have the money to have more kids. 

One of the negativities of Japan’s future economic growth is the view that its older demographics play a negative forecast for future economic growth. 

Even without mining, Western Australia’s economy will stay resillient in the next year due to the stimulus of having the rest of the country in a far worse shape than we are. 

Nearly 20,000 jobs created in 2 months is a sign of an economy that is expanding at a pretty impressive rate, while in Queensland they have lost 20,000 jobs in one month. Showing that mining is not the only pre-cursor to strong job creation. 

Campbell Newman’s Libertarian views shapes QLD.

Queensland is undergoing massive public sector redundancies at the moment, which is skewing the picture of Campbell Newman and what he stands for. There has been a lack of understanding of what his views are.

The first case study into his Premiership comes from the apology he gave to the WIk Nation in May of 2012.

On May 21st 2012 he apologised for denying the rights of self-determination of the Wik Nation, that was eventually declared a national park by the Queensland Government, after John Koowarta won a case against Bjelke Peterson in 1976 in the High Court.

The case was

“In 1976, John Koowarta convinced the Aboriginal Land Fund Commission to purchase a lease of land in Northern Queensland. The lease was to enable an Aboriginal community to start a cattle property. Permission to lease the land was refused by the Queensland National Party government led by Bjelke-Petersen, the party was opposed to Aborigines buying leasehold land. The Koowarta group took the case to the High Court, arguing that the Queensland government’s decision breached the Commonwealth 1975 Racial Discrimination Act.” (www.ccentree.wa.gov.au)

After the final Supreme Court battle, which Sir Joh Bjelke Petersen lost in 1988, he immediately turned it into a National Park so the Wik Nation could not own it, become self sufficient and it would continue the paternalism role that has impacted Australian Aboriginals since first colonisation.

So in one of the first acts of government, Campbell Newman made symbolic reconciliation, followed by action. On May 21st 2012 he formally handed over the land that had been gazetted as National Park to prevent self-sufficiency

“Today I want to confront the issue. That is, 35 years ago a great injustice was perpetrated. And today we’re here to put that right. We’re here to make sure that it is right forever, and to give back to the people what was rightfully theirs. I’m sure, if all Queenslanders knew the story of what happened in 1977 and afterwards, they would feel as sorry as I do myself. So today, my apologies to those who have suffered.” – (excerpt from speech from abc.net.au)

Words such as “great injustice”, “confront the issue” “rightfully theirs” “If all Queenslanders knew” “They would feel as sorry as I do”. Some cracking words that really need to be analysed.

Great Injustice – We failed you

Confront the issue – We are not hiding behind spin

Rightfully theirs – There is no way it should have been anything but your land, you paid for the pastoral lease and it was on your native title

If all Queenslanders knew – Recognising the ignorance that plagues Australia on Aboriginal Affairs and recognising that this occurs in society

They would feel as sorry as I do – But, I as the Premier know the story and I am ashamed of the actions under my predecessor.

The Paternalism that festered in Cape York is now about liberation, ending Alcohol free communities in Cape York and in a budget of huge cuts, he is backing up his outstanding symbolic apology for the actions of the prior LNP Government. Acting on his libertarian  values.

Of the 456 million dollars in social housing, more than half of it is being dedicated to Aboriginal Australian’s, albiet much of it being funded by the Federal Government. But unlike the NDIS and other programs, there is not a state fight between Newman and Gillard regarding joint funding this agreement.

In the Public Sector cuts across the board, the Department of Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islanders and Multi-Cultural Affairs had the least amount of positions cut – 15 jobs. Compare this to the over 2,500 jobs that were cut in the Health Sector.

Campbell Newman is a classic libertarian, he is freeing people from alcohol restrictions, opening up economic opportunities and as a Libertarian is ideologically opposed to the actions of Bjelke Petersen in the past.

Just as he is ideologically opposed to the Public Sector, believing it is the role of business to create jobs and that the state should do everything to harness business activity, while respecting human rights to choose their own path.

Now I am not a Libertarian, but we have to look at Newman in terms of him being a centrist Libertarian, maybe even towards the left. He is open about his support of gay marriage, abhorred by the prevention of self-determination and self income that the Bjelke Petersen Government initiated and fundamentally against the view that the state should interfere into a person’s individual liberty.

He is Australia’s version of Ron Paul. The Budget cuts are extreme for many in Australia (and including myself) but you can understand the reason for the budget, when you understand that he is a classic Libertarian in power. Barry O’Farrell, Tony Abbott, Ted Ballieu and Colin Barnett are the other powerful Liberal Leaders in this country. However,  they are not Libertarians, indeed it is not a huge part of our political makeup, with O’Farrel, Ballieu and Barnett being closer to 3rd Way Politicians, particularly the latter two.

That is believing it is the government’s role to fix the inequities that exist in the capitalist system, that capitalism is not perfect.

In Federal and Queensland Politics there are not any that I am aware of that come close to being positioned as a classic libertarian. And while he is not commiting extra funds for Indigenous people, to the degree that is happening under the Liberal/National Partnership in Western Australia, it’s not because he doesn’t see it as a priority. It’s because it doesn’t fit under his ideological view of the world, his moral compass.

Public Sector cuts, Budget cuts shouldn’t frame Newman as heartless,  extreme right wing or ignorant which many in the media, who most haven’t studied Politics claim.

He is most definitely to the left of the Libertarian spectrum, his Housing Minister Dr Flegg proudly announced to the Courier Mail that he did not want ‘public housing ghettos’ and that Queensland “was really failing thousands of some of the most vulnerable Queenslanders and we have to act”.

“We have made some difficult decisions that doesn’t directly lead to putting a roof over someone’s head.” Queensland’s Social Housing is moving on the same reforms that Gallop led in 2001. Urban renewal of public housing stock, mixed use and demolishing dilipadated properties and making the ministry self sustainable. Which is where Western Australia is now, all be it that our state has not made it the priority that the Newman Government is to dramatically increase funds.

Now Gallop’s policy comes from his Third Way background, but Libertarians on the left also believe it is the government’s role to allow private enterprise to flourish. That it is the responsibility of Government to allow the Private economy and a person’s individual spirit to flourish. So we see this policy in that light, that Newman sees poverty as an impediment that needs to be fixed that allows the individual to reach his potential.

By providing better housing, encouraging private citizens and investments into previously social housing concentrated suburbs (The Courier Mail said Public Housing is dominated in 10 suburbs, with barely any anywhere else) you give the individual the opportunity to seek his own pathway forwards, less crime, better schools more jobs as the area becomes more attractive for mixed use.

Campbell Newman will implement the same pathway forward, but comes at it on a completely different ideological pathway to Geoff Gallop.

Our issue is that we don’t have many classic Libertarian’s in Government (both Labor and Liberal). It is a fundamental shift from Bligh’s Third Way/Social Democratic ideological base. With ideological change from Third Way to Libertarian, the shift the public sees is drastic and is inevitable to cause the concern it has done.

In Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, despite a change in Government there hasn’t been the resultant massive ideological change that has occurred in Queensland.

He sees the world as a Libertarian and as his apology to the Wik Nation shows how his view on the world will shape the Queensland he leads, for perhaps the next decade.

Australia must confront its ‘unique’ asylum seeker debate.

Its been a long, drawn out debate over Asylum seekers that often divides the Australian community. But the  current interest in the Asylum Seeking debate recently for me is the onus of responsibility Australian’s feel for the refugees who make the journey.

In the world that faces refugee movements continuously, this is a unique stand. Deaths from West Africans going to the Canary Islands don’t see the Spanish Government account responsibility for asylum seekers taking the journey as we have seen in Australia.

When the disparity of incomes, civil war and opportunities to move up in the world are seen in these countries as sad, but risks that Asylum Seekers knowingly make.

In Australia, there seems to genuine compassion for Asylum Seekers losing their lives in Australian waters, but not if they don’t hear or see them. Of course that is the reality of media and prominence that you get taught at Journalism school, but its an interesting binary attitude.

Richard Towle the Regional Representative for UNHCR told the ABC earlier this year, after the Christmas Island tragedy of last year.

“Overall, people contemplating moving for whatever reason, saw Australia as a less hospitable place to come and claim international refugee protection,”

“There are many reasons why they would have reached that conclusion, not least the dangers of the voyage, the costs, and what are perceptions of a pretty negative and sometimes hostile public debate on those issues.” (www.abc.net.au)

A hostile debate has turned into a debate of Australian’s not accepting deaths at sea now. Where it has nationalistic and xenophobic links in 2001 it now has a ‘responsibility’ edge where the population demanding no deaths of asylum seekers in Australian waters.

Which is unrealistic and indicates a misunderstanding by the public of the risks asylum seekers take around the world. They know the dangers, they weigh them up and often they leave because they will risk impending death if they stay. Australian’s passions seem to be consumed by their lived experiences of seeing on TV the boat getting smashed to pieces on the rocks of Christmas Island, rather than understanding the genocidal policies that force Hazaras and Tamils out of their countries and have little option but to leave.

It seems despite being in the global environment Australian’s have a unique and somewhat unusual view to a debate that has dominated much of Australian public discourse this millenium.

I haven’t heard a media outlet explain or deliver context to asylums dieing on their journey. We have a one dimensional look at the asylum seeker debate that says its somewhat unusual and a shame on Australia that asylum seekers have died in their journey to Australia. I believe it not to be, rather it a sad part of the risks that Asylum Seekers knowingly make in their journey to asylum across the world.

In 2004 ABC.net reported on the deaths of Africans seeking asylum in the Canary Islands

“One Moroccan human rights group estimates 4,000 people have died since 1997 while trying to reach the Canary Islands or southern Spain.”

So its clearly not a unique problem to Australia, clearly something that nation states can not avoid. What is unique is this unilateral view that Australia is responsible for deaths of asylum seekers on their journey to Australia if they occur within national waters.

Australia is in a unique space in terms of its expectations being totally askew of the reality.

It adds to what Monash University found in a survey of the ‘uniqueness’ of the publics refugee views last year.

“One of the authors, Dr Samantha Thomas, a senior research fellow in Monash’s Marketing Department, described the hostility to people who are seen to “sneak in” as “a very Australian attitude”.

“People are very accepting of asylum seekers and refugees if they feel they’ve been through the appropriate channels,” Dr Thomas said.

“If they feel they’ve somehow jumped the queue or tried to sneak in then there’s quite a different reaction to them, but people are generally in support of Australia taking refugees,” she said.(www.conversation.edu.au)

So its a common practice of Australian’s having somewhat ‘unique’ views on the Asylum Seeker debate, from caring about their welfare in Australian water’s but not in the warlord dominated Afghan countryside.

Why has this occurred? In a debate that has lacked any facts for much of the last decade, sound bites and slogans dominate the discourse. Australian’s have moved on from the Tampa affair and generally are a more compassionate lot.

Rudd moved the nation from calling them ‘illegal immigrants’ to ‘asylum seekers’ which has been followed by the media and general public.

But in terms of their attitudes, they are completely at odds with how others would judge and understand asylum. In Great Britain, – queue jumping would be laughed at as “What que?”, in Spain they would wonder why Australian’s then take responsibility for deaths that occur in order to seek asylum.

In terms of policy mechanisms, the mixture of a poisonous public debate, a lack of consensus by political parties and an increase in people seeking asylum due to instability around the world has landed Australia in a political quagmire.

The nation doesn’t want boats arriving, nor do they want the people on those boats to die in seeking freedom. What the nation wants and what its leaders can achieve will remain diametrically opposed.

Until the issue is neutralised as a political issue, we will continue to have the public having unrealistic beliefs and attitudes towards the Asylum Seeker debate.  It can’t possibly be solved due to their  core understandings being based on ‘myths’ and a media that fails to look at the issue with any global perspective.

The compassion that everyone has for asylum seekers dieing in Australian waters has come about with no perspective and a somewhat unilateral view that Australia must and can stop Asylum Seekers dieing in our waters.

Chris Egan

@perthforever

Despite economic headwinds, Key continues to dominate NZ Politics

John Key is one of the most popular leaders of a developed economy.

His preferred Prime Ministership is at 43% and has been increasing in recent months.

What is John Key doing that others such as Gillard are not? Better Politician? Maybe.  Hasn’t gone on a reformist agenda?

It helps.

But 3News Political Editor Duncan Garner states it has more to do with invisibility.

“People do not like some of these particular policies… but that’s not transferring into them not liking Key overall, I suppose it all comes down to what’s the alternative? Is David Shearer doing well, is he strong, is he visible or is he Mr Invisible? I think the answer is, he probably is invisible, which leaves Key to have a pretty vice-like grip on center voters.”

Questions than are asked is that the media or Shearer’s fault?

Shearer’s speech today uses a mixture of language. At one level, he’s looking at aiming his vote at the battler, but consistently its language like this.

“We propose giving the dole money to an employer to take on an apprentice. The employer gets a subsidy for the apprentice – and the young person gets the training.”

Dole money, is a rather derogatory terminology that is often used in the media to typecast groups and the lower class. It’s a step out of David Cameron’s welfare plan and hardly something about looking after the disadvantaged in society.

Indeed the speech litters itself with political uncertainties of whether they are for the working class battlers, or they are neo-liberal supporters of cheapening wages.

Why do they attack Nationals about Australian migration and low income jobs, when their policy is to cheapen the wages of apprentices through money being taken from the ‘dole’ to businesses to train them.

What’s worse is that there is no extra income for this scheme. The scheme results in government mandating of jobs and withdrawal of income if they don’t agree to an apprenticeship that the powers to be choose for them.

You argue for a high income society? Yet your policy mechanisms will result in a low income society.

His claim is that his central priority is Education. Yet Education is what is driving Kiwi migration to Australia. It’s not that Kiwi’s have a poor education system, its that their economy is not going through the economic expansion that Australia’s has gone on for 21 years.  Through liberal migration pathways, New Zealanders are taking advantage and moving to Australia for higher incomes. There is not much in a policy sense that challenges this.

Whether its the Keating Labour reforms, the Mining Boom or the Harvester Judgement of 1904, all these factors place an election based on stopping Australian migration is fool hardy and a waste of energy.

Is it any wonder the Centre and the Left continue to vote for Keys? Keys supports Gay Marriage and the bill is about to be put into NZ Parliament. Shearer wants to isolate his own Left orientated progressives by using terminology such as ‘dole’ to explain a new policy in a speech.

Keys is entrenching Progressive Voters, Shearer is isolating the Progressive thinkers that could shift from Key.

As long as that continues, Key popularity will refrain from following those of most other World Leaders who hold power in Developed Economies.

Chris Egan

@perthforever

Manjimup – Life on the other side of the boom

Manjimup is on the other side of the mining boom in Western Australia. Other than a slight rise in the 15-24 year olds, the demographics for Manjimup continues to show some concerns for the government and council.

In 2006 the population of Manjimup was 4239, by 2011 the population census within the town centre had only risen to 4293. While other regional areas to the north have found strong population growth within town centres, this has not happened within Manjimup.

What is the more startling data from the census is that in 2006 there was 2160 Females and in 2011 there was 2060 Females. While the Male population had increased from 2079 to 2133 people.

As in the Wheatbelt, Filipinos represent a new port of call nation becoming resident within the town. Most are likely to be Single Males and they represented 50% of the population growth between 2006-2011.

So it does show that towns in the south-west and the Wheatbelt are resorting to migration to fill in the skilled vacancies within the workforce. It also shows theneed for governments to invest in more training infrastructure as the economy increasingly requires skilled workers rather than unskilled workers.

Filipinos are moving into Western Australia’s resource industry throughout the state. As Filipino women often move abroad to work to subsidise their families income, this cultural move is somewhat expected of many women, but now Male Filipinos are in high demand throughout the state.

These Male Filipino Migrants would be subsisdising families within the Phillipines, but also many would see the opportunities to bring families out if they believe their employment is secure.

With the greying of the population, Manjimup will require more families to move into town to continue the economic growth of the centre. Lone Houseperson households have shown the strongest growth, indicating elderly people living by themselves after a partner dies and also the increase of single male trade workers.

In 2006 24.5% lived in lone households, by 2011 473 had done so. Cheap rent of $150 per week for a 2 bedroom unit available today, shows how it would attract single people struggling to live in other parts of the state that had strong migration to their communities.

It also provides opportunities for the Federal/State Government to trial apprenticeship/rent schemes for young men and women to work in towns such as Manjimup. In terms of those waiting on Public Housing lists in the city, or looking for work in the city there could be a register where towns with cheap cost of living and clear skilled labour needs are moved into these towns to reduce housing pressure in other parts of the state and provide an economic boost to regions that aren’t feeling the same stimulus as other regions. It also provides an opportunity for these young people to gain increased economic independence.

The increased Filipino and male population indicates it is trade orientated work that is demanded within the town. The growth in this agricultural region is growing on the same path as Renmark in South Australia, a town I mentioned in the Wheatbelt census stats. But unlike Renmark there has been an increase in Australian born residents from 3,432 to 3,502. One of the biggest decline has been in residents who were born in England who have fallen from 227 to 205.

It also seems the Afghani population within town, who were most likely refugees have moved elsewhere. In 2006 there was 15 people who spoke Persian within town, by 2011 it was no longer in the census statistics. A sign of the recent refugee intake coming into town is the Tamils, with 11 people now speaking Tamil within the community which was previously not represented.

For towns like Dalwallinu, who are planning a refugee re-population plan future census results from Manjimup will be invaluable to understanding whether they have found regional areas an attractive place to live.

While its clear there are challenges ahead, Manjimup has the bonus of having cheap rentals and a clear need for trade workers as the mining boom attracts workers who previously lived in town.

With decling home ownerships and those who have a mortgage, this corresponds to only a $105 a week increase in average wage growth, compared to an $111 increase over the last five years around Australia.

With wage growth being below the Australian average in a period of economic strength within Western Australia, it shows the mining boom has not impacted Manjimup and that government intervention is needed to ensure that this is shared to the people of Manjimup.

State and Federal reform though can stimulate it and other similar towns within Western Australia through with carefully designed housing/trade apprenticeship program, designed to utilise the cheap residential rental costs and the demand for labour.

A large Trade College would also prove attractive for people throughout the South-West Region centred on Manjimup. With 4 bedroom houses currently renting out at $350 a week, students/Apprentices would be paying far less than other regions of the south-west where tourism has created higher rents, particularly on the coast.

Manjimup is strategically located to all of the larger growth centres within the region. Private/State Government Partnership to develop something would be in both the private sector and Governments interest. It is cheaper to recruit locally than interstate and international for private enterprise. They are also more likely to stay in their job.

With extremely cheap living conditions, a population that has culturally been working with tools and economic restructuring within town due to the decline of Dairy and Forestry it is an opportunity for Business/Government to take advantage in a non boom town with lower outlays than in the majority of the rest of Western Australia.

The last census statistics show that Manjimup is not receiving anywhere near the economic stimulus of the Wheatbelt from the mining boom. In addressing this two speed economy in the state, government funding is required to ensure that Manjimup’s wage growth doesn’t continue to grow at a lower rate than the National average. Which is clearly unacceptable considering Western Australia is going through the greatest economic boom since the 1890′s Gold Rush.

Chris Egan

@perthforever

GST needs to get beyond ‘price floor’ rhetoric

The GST is like the Eurozone, its clear that unfettered regulations is distorting the picture. But it can’t be solved with a simple ‘price floor’.

Some states are clinging to it, to support their budget, others are seeing it being taken away in huge chunks. It has now become a major issue on the western seaboard, but with a rather simplistic debate to change it.

Now I am a fan of horizontal fiscal equalisation, but with a regulatory component that should be brought in to ensure fairness and other states encouraged to economically reform.

Just like the Eurozone have done with Greece, we need to do with Tasmania. Rather than subsidising Tasmania and they just use the funds to pay off debt.

Because unlike the Eurozone, we suffer from fiscal conservatism on a wide scale and an unhealthy obcession with AAA ratings. As a Western Australian I released the difference between the budgets of South Australia and Western Australia earlier this year in a  blog, revenue from the Commonwealth is decreasing rapidly.

But its also sacrificing GST money because they have not axed taxes to increase state revenue, when they could have done so. Instead these taxes are being spent on a large, impressive infrastructure renewal program.

Now tax raising is an option that is too hard for most governments. But infrastructure commitments need to also be looked at. State Governments should not be disadvantaged in GST receipts, just because they have chosen to spend more on infrastructure than in State Tax cuts.

So how do we resolve the issue?

Either a wider scale look at where the revenues for each state is coming from, the level of infrastructure development they are undertaking (eg stimulating the economy and GST Dollars) and the unilateral tax rates across the boards

Or they take into account infrastructure spending into the GST calculations, if a state is prepared to go into debt to develop infrastructure, while another state is not. Where is the fairness? That state waits for Federal Government handouts, the other one builds infrastructure that delivers better economic and GST dollars, while the other continues to placate a mediocre pathway forward.

Just like the Eurozone, there is a dire need for reform. WA Labor and Liberal simply saying ‘GST’ Floors over-simplifies a more complex debate that needs to be made for the benefit of all Australian’s.

Chris Egan

@perthforever

Golden Bay becomes magnet for FIFO workers.

This blog is the demographic changes happening within my home town Golden Bay. I have lived here for most of the last 17 years and contrasting to this blog, I am not a FIFO worker. Golden Bay is a coastal suburb 68km south west of Perth.

The recent census has shown a household income growth within the town of 50%. While 44% of the suburb’s population growth has been from 25-54 year olds and of the 303 extra people within the suburb 60% are men. Indicating the suburb’s growth is largely being fostered by the state’s insatiable demand for trade workers due to the mining boom.

The big story in Golden Bay is the astronomical growth in household income. In 2006 the Household income was 1070 by 2011 the median household income was 1604 a week. A 50% increase in household income in just five years.

The income growth for the residents is all the more remarkable when you consider that rents are still below the national average as they were in 2006. In 2006 the median rental price in Golden Bay was $170, this had risen to $270 by 2011 but still below the 2011 Australian rental median of $285.

As Rents rose by $100 over five years, the household income rose $504 and the results have been an increase in house ownership as the residents of this outer metropolitan suburb’s income increases, while rents remain below the national average – Something of an economists dream.

While property prices have retracted since the boom, the incomes have grown which creates an important policy conundrum.

Much policy advice is that outer metropolitan regions will become defacto ghettos as infrastructure lags the speed of development blocks. This has not occurred in Golden Bay and has involved an increase in living standards as rents have grown at only a fifth of the rate as median household incomes, with a relatively plentiful supply of land and housing acting as a deflationary pressure on house prices and rents.

As Golden Bay is at the very south-western corner of the Perth metropolitan region it provides some contrasting information to that common held view.

However it could be that it indicates to state government that infrastructure is responding to growth in the outer metropolitan districts and thus the impediments to increased living standards are being alleviated.

The results have been an increase in people aged between 25-54. The increase in people in this age group consists of half the population growth within the suburb. Delivering the indication that it is increasingly favoured by young workers.

However if we disect the results further, we can see that only 40% of the increased population can be accounted by additional females, with 60% of the population increase being males. This disproportionate increase is normally attributed to male dominated employment such as mining and trades.

The dramatic increase in wages of households, can be largely attributed to the huge  growth in wages of male dominated industries that dominate the community. The last ABS census said that Golden Bay had one of the highest proportion of tradies in Western Australia with more than a third of the workforce.

English, New Zealand migrants now make up a larger proportion of the population, but unlike the wheatbelt, migration has not come from new ports of call.

The population growth indicates that lifestyle and coastal regions in outer metropolitan regions are attractive to FIFO workers and that communities throughout Western Australia, including in outer metropolitan regions will continue to distort the national picture of outer metropolitan decline.

Despite the increase in income, the suburb continues to remain affordable for those not being impacted by the mining boom, noted by the rather mundane increase in rental prices. Something of a rarity in towns/suburbs that become home to these workers.

Chris Egan

@perthforever

Wheatbelt diversifies its economy and attracts migrants.

The recent 2011 census has seen many news articles on the recent growth in incomes/rents and population growth, but we haven’t seen much on the stories that show us big changes in the traditional economic/demographic story within Western Australia.

One of the biggest stories I’ve found within my research, is the growth of migration from South Africa, Phillipines and China into many of the town centres of the wheatbelt. These are the census stats of those living within the towns, so they typically wouldn’t be farmers.

From anecdotal evidence, Filipinos and South Africans are favoured to sponsor in many engineering businesses when they come over. This is how the wheatbelt town centres are feeling the ‘mining boom’.

When visiting one business for the Department of Commerce last year, one business owner in Northam responded about their growth allowing increased apprenticeships for young ” Ha, nah we get all of them from the Phillipines, most of the young kids will go straight up north as soon as they have finished their apprenticeship”.

Now that creates other interesting ‘reality checks’ for the union movement, WA Labor policy (who reckon we needs mandates and ancient policy to increase local content) but I am going to look at those stories another time, this is  purely a demographic article.

Of the 217 Filipinos in the Central Wheatbelt region, 74 live within the Town of Northam, or 1.1% of the population and higher than the state and national average. So we have a really interesting story being told about the diversification of Northam and other regions in the Wheatbelt.

If we compare that with the 2006 census, Northam’s Filipino population has exploded from not rating a mention to being home to 34% of Filipinos living within the Central Wheatbelt .

Of the five top countries of birth outside of Australia, the Phillipines is not mentioned and the languages spoken at home did not include Tagalog or Filipino, the national languages of the Phillipines.

South African’s have also led the boom to Northam. In 2006 South Africans were not in the top 5 nations of birth other than Australia in Northam, now they sit in 5th spot. Afrikaans is their language of choice, which was not even in the top five languages in 2006.

Merredin’s town centre growth in population of 347 from 2550 in 2006 to 2897 in 2011 has incorporated a huge growth in the Chinese population within town. Around 20% of the population growth can be attributed to Chinese migrants.

In 2006  the top 5 locations of birth outside of Australia did not incorporate China and Shona was the fifth most spoken language at home with 3. In 2011 China was the nation of third highest proportion of the population who were born overseas and both Mandarin and Tagalog which had previously not shown up in the previous census made it in 2011.

As the mining boom goes on the demand for labor is diversifying regions that traditionally couldn’t attract migrants.  The town centres often lost population due to the reduction in size of farming and more importantly a bad cropping season would cause economic issues for the entire season. Now when the farmers go on holiday in January, there will be businesses still providing services and retail for those in the growing engineering sector.

Communities become more multi-cultural, with more languages, religions which then attracts more migration growth and business opportunities for regions that will be impacted by future climate change.

This is the legacy of the mining boom, as steel fabrication is demanded across the state, migrants are moving in and providing increased stimulus to towns that would otherwise not have had the diversification, nor the population increase.

An example of this is Renmark, a large agricultural town in South Australia. In 2006 the population of the town was 4339, this had grown by only 48 people to 2011 and a population of 4387.

While Renmark had a doubling of Indians being born overseas, they replaced Australian’s who were born in the country with the Australian born population falling from 3477 to 3307. Which indicates regional settlement incentives by the Federal Government are supporting the otherwise economic and population decline of an important town node in the Riverlands.

As the media goes on about population, wealth and rents, its missing the bigger picture – significant analysis of demographic changes within communities, particularly those which need to change due to climate change.

Chris Egan

@perthforever